The Golden Tears That Are Falling Down Are Telling You One Thing: Something Dire Is Coming.
People cry tears of joy as price of gold rises. Little do people know, it's also an indicator trouble ahead.
It was 1250 BCE in the ancient civilization of Egypt. 1 man, a person named Tariq went into the caves on an exploration, hoping to show his friends something cool. Tariq about 20 feet below the surface found a rock with a buttery color on it and he gasp, never seeing it before. He took his pickaxe, and mine out the gold, then he saw more of the buttery color, mines it out again.
Tariq then puts the rock inside the bag, and he immediately ran out the cave back to where his friends gathered.
”By the gods!” exclaimed Tariq, “I went back on an exploration, and there was one particular rock that I’ve never seen with such a buttery substance before!”
”What exactly are you talking about Tariq?” questioned Mohammad as his eyebrow raised, “Show us this rock your talking about.”
Tariq shows the rock to his friends, and they all gasp as their eyes widen in fascination.
”Dear gods! I have never seen this in my life before!” Abdul said, “We have to show this to the council!”
Tariq and his friends went to the council, they saw the rock, they gasped never seeing it before. Immediately, the council demands an exploration for this buttery substance that they called:
GOLD.
Gold was exchanged based on the quantity and weight of it. For thousands of years, people used gold as a way to protect their purchasing power, to store their wealth. But when is starts to rise it means something bad is coming, let’s explore further…
Gold Always Sniffs Some Things Out Ahead of Time
You see, there’s 2 assets that people flock to when the economy goes to the downturn: One of them is bonds (which I have covered here on The Market Sentinel.)
The other is gold.
Of these 2 assets, gold rises first. Some would say It’s a hedge against inflation.
In reality, it’s a gauge of future money velocity, the rate at which money changes hands.
But how is it possible gold can detect this?
Well there’s 4 Gold always “sees” before its move:
Credit Expansion.
Market Concentration
Insider Selling
Liquidity Strain
For gold to rise, all 4 of these must be in tango, otherwise, gold would either be relatively stable, or in some cases, drop!
Now let’s go further in detail about each Criteria.
Golden Criteria One: Is Credit Expanding or Dropping?
As you know, money is created when commercial banks, not central banks makes a loan.
(If you wanna know more about Credit Growth, you can click the link here.)
When banks lend in the economy, that means people borrow money to purchases goods and services. They also borrow money to start businesses, invest in the stock market or, invest in real estate.
In 2001, the only reason the recession mild after the dot com bubble was because during that time, people were getting into Real Estate (as the fed was cutting rates to basically encourage continue cheap borrowing) and more importantly they were still spending in the economy and starting business. That’s why gold remained relatively stable
In order for gold to rise rapidly, Credit growth has to be declining! Was that the case during the GFC in 2008? YES!
In 2007, heading into 2008, there was soaring delinquencies in mortgages, because people weren’t paying the loans on them. Therefore, this causes banks to lend less, causing a collapse of credit growth.
And what was the BS everyone was fed in the media? Everything was fine! But while they were feeding the masses utter BS, the institutions that knew what was going on started to buy gold.
Now what about to the lead up to Covid 2 years prior? Did gold rose?
Yes!
After the 2008 crisis, there was credit expansion again as people borrowed money to buy goods and services, but when covid hit in March 2020 and people quarantined, money velocity collapsed. When the first case of the Covid was recorded in late 2019, Gold rose in anticipation of money velocity collapsing.
Today in 2025, credit growth is declining because people are delinquent and defaulting on their loans and that has caused gold to trend higher.
So now you know! When there’s delinquencies in Auto, Credit Cards, Student Loans, Office CRE, Multifamily, Etc., gold is saying deflation is on the way because what happens to money velocity? It’ll collapse due to credit growth declining.
If credit growth is expanding, then gold would remain relatively stable.
Golden Criteria Two: Is there Market Concentration?
In 1920’s, the biggest new tech was radio. It was something at that time nobody has ever seen before, just like how people today in 2025 saw artificial intelligence as a revolutionary tech. What do people need to hear the radio? Utilities! On top of that, Automobiles were a new thing in the block! Together, these 3 accounted for 30 to 40% of the gains in the Dow Jones.
In 2000, it was a website that ended in dot com. The tech sector account for 33 to 35% of the S&P 500.
in 2008, It was housing, all though not revolutionary, the financial sector accounted for between 20 to 22% of the S&P 500.
What are the common dominators between the 3?
They all had market concentration.
The reason why 1929 and 2008 was much worse than what happened in 2000, was because on both of these times there was credit decline as millions were delinquent on their loans. in 2000, there was credit expansion, making the recission that followed in 2001 mild as credit was expanding despite the concentration
Basically this means in order for gold to rise, there must be credit growth declining and there has to be a market concertation DURING the credit decline. If none of these all occur at the same time, then gold remains relatively stable.
Why is gold rising in 2025?
There is both a credit decline (Which I have explicitly mentioned in my article where you can find the line by clicking here)
And there is market concentration in these areas: AI, Real Estate (Both Commercial and Residential) and Crypto. Mag 7 accounts for 35% of the S&P 500
Surely this will end well….. right?
Golden Criteria 3: Does The Corporate Insider Know What’s Happening?
Whenever Executives at major corporative firms goes onto mainstream media and talk about the health of their business, they always use jargon but they say that “Hey there’s no need to worry, everything is totally fine, our companies is doing okay, our fundamentals are sound!”
But the Rockefellers, and other wealthy families, as well as insiders back in 1929 before October in closed door meetings said otherwise…
”This is extremely troubling,” said James Erics, a CEO of a company that produces radios, “People aren’t paying their loans back! Mortgage Delinquencies are going up, Auto Delinquencies are going up, and there’s a massive concertation in investments with radio, utilities, and auto. We’re going to be liquidating our positions massively.”
“I agree with Mr. Erics,” Said a member of the Rockefellers, “These citizens won’t have the capital needed to pay of their debts. Furthermore, if any one of these companies that is seeing a concentrated investment collapses, it would spread out through the entire Dow Jones. We can’t get caught in the fire.”
So the group liquidated, held on to their cash and brought gold.
in 2000, a similar conversation was had in companies that had dot comb on it.
2008, Hedge fund started to short the CDO (Collateralized Debt Obligations, a pool of mortgages)
The same play is playing out today. Last August, a report from Barchart on Twitter/X said that insiders were dumping as the stock market was at all time highs.
And an August 4th report from Bloomberg stated that insiders at 151 companies brought their own stock.
This means that insiders at 349 of the 500 companies listed of the S&P500, which is 69.8%, WERE SELLING THEIR OWN STOCK.
So what’s the move in the S&P 500 since those reports?
S&P 500 went up 8%….
And Gold’s move?
It gained 30% Since that move.
If that isn’t a red flag to you, I honestly don’t know what is!
So far, what we are seeing is credit growth collapsing, markets being concentrated and Insiders selling stock at the same time.
Now we need to go over the final golden criteria, something that the insiders look at: liquidity stress.
Golden Criteria 4: Is there Liquidity Stress In the System?
Now Golden Criteria 1 and 4 has a super strong relationship, so strong that they can not separate themselves! They really took ‘till death do us apart very seriously!
The flow of logic is simple, if banks are lending aggressively in the economy, there’s liquidity in the system.
If the banks aren’t lending aggressively in the economy, there’s LESS liquidity, and that causes massive problems.
Now this is where we go into advance concepts like Repurchase agreements, or REPO for short. Basically this a market where if you’re short on cash, but you’ll know you will have the money tomorrow. and who’s in this market? The commercial banks!
It goes like this:
- A Commercial banks would sell US treasuries or Mortgage Backed Securities as colleterial to the Federal Reserve (the Lender)
- The Fed gets the treasuries, hold them for a temporary time, then they give the cash to the commercial bank via reserve deposits.
- At the end of the deal, which is overnight, the commercial bank would buy the treasuries or the mortgage backed security at a higher price, effectively paying off the principal plus the interest.
Now, this has been happening frequently, every since September 17th of this year, when the fed cut basis points. This means that the dollars are getting more and more scarce because banks are lending less in an economy that is seeing people being delinquent in all kinds of loans.
You can view this at the New York Fed website where they post the REPO operations.
Now REPO opened back in 2001, after the dot com bubble. In 2008, there was heavy usage of this facility. Same thing back happened back in 2019 and 2020.
Now before 2025, there was ZERO usage of REPO! Meaning that there was liquidity in the system. Now, there’s REPO usage, especially event since September meaning that there’s strains in liquidity.
So there you have it! When you combine credit decline with market concentration, insider selling and liquidity strains, all 4 of them will cause gold to rip higher.
The golden tears may fall for those who hold it, but for those that doesn’t hold it, it’s screaming that an event is coming that will trigger a global….
DEFLATION.